The guiding vision of CrimeGrade is to provide the most accurate, most detailed crime metrics. Every crime reporting site we've seen has massive gaps in the data, lacks the granular geographic neighborhood and block-level data CrimeGrade shows, or shows highly inaccurate data. That said, people often attempt to use our projected statistics to compare cities across states and even to other countries. When comparing different places, one must recognize there is a high degree of uncertainty, even with excellent data, for a few reason.
Different Definitions of Crimes
Suppose you wanted to compare the rate of property crime in a city in New Jersey to one in Texas. More than likely you'd find a higher raw property crime rate in the New Jersey city. Is that because people from Jersey have no respect for property? In fact Texas has a very different set of criminal codes. For theft to be considered felony theft in Texas the thief must steal property exceeding $2,500 in value. In New Jersey that limit is just $200, meaning far more thefts will be considered the more serious “felony theft.” This trend continues for varying definitions of robbery, burglary, assault, an so on. Crime Grade attempts to normalize the data for some of the problems caused by definitions, but this is one of many ways valid data may lead to some false conclusions.
Different Reporting Factors
Most crimes vary greatly in how often they are reported. Citizens may not call the police if they witness a crime out of fear of reprisal, cultural differences, or the belief that the police will not respond in a timely manner. If a crime is never reported, it will obviously never be included in crime statistics.
Further, as we know well at Crime Grade, not all departments share the same standards of reporting. This requires extensive cleanup and normalization. While reporting errors and deficits are usually not intentional, it complicates comparing areas served by poorly organized departments against departments with high standards for data and reportin
Zooming out to the country level, both of these factors are amplified extensively. In certain countries in areas with high criminality, the police may not be called as a rule. In upper class cities in Europe and North America, however, there is an excellent chance a citizen will report the crime. These also tend to be the places with better reporting. While the safer place will usually still report a lower crime rate, variables in reporting may disadvantage the safer area upon comparison.
One crime varies very little in the US and throughout the world: murder. Very few murders go unreported. There is usually a body or a loved one who doesn't come home. But even comparing murder rates at a country level can lead to some mistaken conclusions. For example, the murder rate in Mexico in 2022 was reported as 25 per 100,000 vs. 6.3 in the US. That might lead you to believe “Mexico is dangerous.” But as Far Homes points out in their post on safe places in Mexico, huge variations exist between cities. In fact, many large cities and popular destinations in Mexico are safer than many large US cities. Cabo sits at 3.7 and Merida at 1.5 vs. cities like New Orleans, which at 70 per 100,000 is more dangerous than Mexico or any other country on earth. Of course comparing the highest murder rate in the US to a country isn't fair, but it goes to show that perspective matters. Far Homes also points out that Americans in Mexico face an even lower crime rate than locals: the claimed rate was 0.3 per 100,000. This figure is definitely debatable, but it makes sense that US tourists are generally left alone. This brings us to our next problem in comparing different places.
Demographic Differences in the Same Place
People living in the same block also experience different “crime rates” based on their activities, acquaintances, and demographic factors. For example, being involved in a gang or having friends or family involved in a gang significantly increases the chances of becoming a victim of crime. Unhoused people have a much higher rate of crime victimization. Black people are more likely to be the victims of both violent and property crime. The list goes on, and includes method of transportation to work, job, educational status, and so on. In general, disadvantaged groups are much more likely to be victims of crime. Those differences exceed any differences in crime commission rates, and are not fully explained by other factors like income, education, etc.
Low-Population Areas and More
Crime Grade maps crime per capita, which is the gold standard of crime reporting. Even valid data can lead you to mistaken conclusions, though. US national parks may at times appear dark red, meaning it has a high crime rate. Some might wonder whether this is true. Are national parks dangerous? The answer is no, crime is not out of control in national parks. But the number of crimes committed remains at a non-zero number simply by nature of people being there. People are generally not allowed to build homes in national parks, so the population sits at or near 0. In other words, the data is valid, but the denominator can lead to mistaken conclusions. This is repeated with other attractions, including large parks, airports, and even sprawling retail and shopping areas where no one lives, but people visit.
Our crime maps are highly correlated with where crimes end up occurring. But even with a perfect map and perfect data we cannot tell you your exact risk, because factors beyond your control may heavily impact the reality. Keep all of this in mind when comparing two places: it's always worth dropping a street view pin or visiting the place yourself to understand if any of these factors might lead you to mistaken conclusions.